Rwanda-Uganda animosity: Pause for leadership change

 

                                                                The Grapevine

The strained relations between Rwanda and Uganda have shown signs of detente in recent weeks. In the aftermath of Rwanda's shutting down the border linking the two countries in February 2019, both sides threatened each other with war. However, the heightened tension began to ease after the Ugandan Land Forces Commander Muhoozi Kainerugaba, also the son of President Museveni, visited Rwanda last January and March. Following Muhoozi's first visit, Rwanda opened the border it had kept closed for three years. Uganda, on the other hand, expelled some of the leading dissidents that Rwanda considers "terrorists." Uganda also dismissed the head of military intelligence, which Rwanda had long criticized. In addition, Muhoozi's birthday was celebrated with grandiose ceremonies on April 24 with the participation of Rwandan President Paul Kagame. This led to the optimism that the reconciliation between Rwanda and Uganda is genuine.

However, considering that the bad blood between the two countries has been going on for at least 20 years, it is necessary to approach the optimistic mood with caution. Therefore, in order to better understand the current situation, it is essential to examine the main reasons for the conflict and tensions between Rwanda and Uganda, what accusations and allegations are against one another, and most importantly, why Uganda is the first to hold out the olive branch and why now.

Ugandan President Museveni and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, have a long history. Both had helped each other in coming to power in their respective countries. The cooperation between the two leaders did not stop there. In the First Congo War (1996-1997), they collaborated in overthrowing President Mobutu and installing rebel leader Laurent Kabila as the head of state in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). When Kabila wanted to set himself free from his patrons, Kagame and Museveni triggered the Second Congo War, this time to overthrow Kabila. However, the conflict of interest that emerged during the war ended Museveni and Kagame's long-standing friendship and alliance. During the war in DRC, there were several fierce clashes between Rwandan and Ugandan forces over the control of the diamond-rich city of Kisangani. Total warfare between the two countries was averted thanks to the mediation efforts of the UK.

Since then, bilateral relations have never returned to the good old days. The parties accused each other of bringing about regime change by supporting the rebel groups, destabilizing the country, infiltrating the security and intelligence bureaucracy, waging a proxy war in the northeast of the KDC, and trying to harm the country's economy.

Even though the conflict first emerged in the context of sharing spoils of the war in the KDC, there are two more significant and more deep-rooted causes. The first is the baggage of the 40-year-long shared history between Museveni and Kagame. Museveni thinks that Kagame is not grateful for his help in coming to power. Worse still, for Museveni, he is antagonistic toward Uganda. Kagame, on the other hand, believes that he himself, his comrades in arms, and countless Rwandan refugees played a crucial role in bringing Museveni to power. Therefore, he does not accept any dept to be paid.

The second is the shared aspiration of the two leaders to become the dominant power in East Africa. This common goal causes Rwanda and Uganda to pit against each other. Both countries participate in peacekeeping missions of the United Nations and African Union in the region with their military units. They strive not only to influence the East African Community (EAC) and the African Union but also the countries in the region. For instance, when the political crisis broke out in Burundi in 2015, Uganda supported Burundi President Nkurunziza, while Rwanda aimed for a regime change.

While these two factors can be qualified as the root causes of the conflict, it is necessary to look at Uganda's recent and rather sudden move for reconciliation with Rwanda. While one can easily attribute Museveni's push for rapprochement to ending the substantial economic loss caused by border closure and taking advantage of DRC's joining the EAC, his primary motivation could be related to domestic politics. Ugandan pop-star Bobi Wine had shaken up the country's politics by appealing to young voters in the last presidential elections. Museveni, on the other hand, being very well aware of deep frustration in public and his advanced age, wants to transfer the leadership of his regime, which he has fortified for 36 years, to an heir of his choice. A smooth transition seems to be Museveni's primary concern. 

In this respect, while mending ties with Rwanda, Museveni intends to catapult his son Muhoozi, whom he appointed as the lead actor in the process, into politics. Rapprochement with Rwanda in this respect is seemingly aimed at securing his regime by warding off possible sabotage of Kagame during the fragile process of leadership change. Rwandan sabotage might not be a farfetched assertion if Rwanda infiltrated Uganda's security apparatus to the extent that is alleged by the Ugandan side.

Museveni's plans to install his son to power have been voiced since 2013, though persistently rejected by Museveni and Muhoozi. However, the polishing of Muhoozi, especially in recent months, gives the impression that it is a calculated move in every respect. Muhoozi visited Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa since mid-2021. Particularly in relation to his visits to Rwanda, he was touted as a talented statesman and a negotiator. He even announced his retirement from the military, which prevented him by law, running for political office. His 48th birthday (April 24) celebrations were announced several weeks earlier and turned into a countrywide event. High profile attendance from political and security circles of Uganda at Muhoozi's birthday party was undoubtedly aimed at sending the message that Muhoozi has the backing of state apparatus and the bureaucracy. 

Currently, Muhoozi is busy liking tweets in which he is projected as the next president or presented as a potential candidate in the 2026 presidential elections. He organizes polls for his candidacy on social media. He even declared that he would announce a political program on behalf of "Team MK" (his initials). He has already started making electoral promises.

On the other hand, Muhoozi's profile, especially on social media, gives the impression that he is not a politician to fill his father's shoes. He makes comments and statements that may harm Uganda's foreign relations. For instance, in one of his tweets, he admitted the presence of the Ruanda National Congress (RNC), which Ugandan authorities had long denied. RNC is considered a terrorist organization by Rwanda. In addition, he also tweetedthat he could send troops to Guinea to 'discipline' the junta after the coup d'etat; Uganda would fight anyone who would fight Egypt, and the former US President Donald Trump was the only 'white man' he respected. During his birthday party, Kagame allegedly joked about Muhoozi's Twitter comments by offering to edit his tweets. 

To sum up, the step taken by Museveni and Muhoozi to reduce the tension with Rwanda is understandably a preparation for the imminent leadership change in Uganda. However, if the current rapprochement collapses, it will not be only the bilateral relations at stake. The leadership change plan of Museveni could also be derailed. On the other hand, four years until the next presidential election is a long time in politics. If Museveni has no plans to withdraw from office before the end of his term, the 'Muhoozi polishing scheme' might be a premature endeavor. As Ugandan analyst Moses Baguma states, "being polished seems to act against the polished in Uganda's politics." Moreover, if Muhoozi continues to use social media the way he currently does, it could be himself who could cause the most significant harm to his political career. In any case, the succession of Museveni is likely to shape Uganda's domestic politics and foreign policy agenda in the upcoming period.